From my experience so far as a musing user, musing isn't really concerned about your number of upvotes before you can get upvoted by musing.
Just as you've explained, a post with more upvotes from their Steemit followers may appear to be the first in rank but that sometimes doesn't guarantee their full upvotes by musing. I have seen cases whereby a user had upto 13 upvotes from his Steemit followers which made him appeared on the first rank in the answer but he wasn't upvoted by musing because his answer lacked quality. A user below him with 3 upvotes initially was able to make it to musing trending page due to the quality of his answer.
The fact is you have to provide quality answer because musing is a free from cheating as the curators are doing their jobs to the fullest.
It may serve as luck for some users who are chance to gain upvotes from their followers which made them rank the first place in the answer platform because the curators may think that for such person to have that kind of upvotes, he or she has came up with quality content.
Please let's try as much as possible to provide quality answers and also note that you may not even get upvoted for providing quality answer everyday because the platform also have to be considerate of others.
Thank you for reading and I hope answers your question.
It is worth to note that all upvoted answers on musing are all manually curated by the Musing team. At times where you didn't get an upvote on an answer where you put in an effort on, what probably happened was that they didn't get the chance to read your answer.
Since Musing is now starting to attract many users, it's not at all surprising if they miss one or two of your quality posts.
As a matter of fact, one answer of mine posted as a blog post got many upvotes where also missed. https://steemit.com/gaming/@jlordc/pkrrv4gv5
So no! The number of upvotes nor the answers potential payout doesn't determine if Musing will upvote it or not! If they have seen your post and it is of quality then for sure you will get the vote irregardless of what other people votes say. :)
I believe the number of upvotes on makes is subjective to the readers interpretation of how reasonable or nice an answer is in relation to the question, whiles musing may have a different opinion concerning your opinion others may agree with you and give you more upvotes whereas musing would not, and then there is the time where musing would agree with you and others may necessarily not agree with you
Musing will upvote any content which they believe is interesting,it is not the number of upvotes you get on an
answer that will determine if musing will upvote you or
not,if you have an answer which is good you will likely get upvote from musing even if your answer did not get any upvote from any user.....