The financial crisis began ten years ago and the world economy has grown ever since every single year. There is a major depression every two decades or slightly more frequently. There's usually something of a slump in the middle. I think the probability of a smaller downturn in the world economy is high. Trouble is nobody knows what will trigger it and when.
Interestingly, much of this is likely to be tied in with the land valuation cycle. Land value has peaked every 18 years very regularly for the last 200 years: 1818, 1836, 1854, 1872, 1890, 1907, 1925, 1973, 1979, 1989, and 2006 (World War II disrupted this cycle, hence the figures missing in the middle of the century). Land valuation influences construction and construction influences finance in major way which in turn influences many, many other industries.
South Africa is currently in a recession already. You know there is trouble when companies are downsizing and cutting down on costs.
Unemployment is skyrocketing and inflation has picked up. The Dollar got stronger and has forced the fuel costs up having a knock on effect throughout all the different industries.
Black Friday has come and gone and honestly noticed very little difference and wasn't like previous years. The money is just not there and is a tell tale sign that everyone has tightened the purse strings.
I do believe the world economy is fragile and too many things can trigger economic collapse. It is as though people forget and repeat similar things all over again.
I truly believe a world wide recession is just getting started as evething is pointing towards that direction.