Yes and no., it's hard to predict if a war will really happen or just some civil unrest.
Weak times make strong men, strong men make good times. Good times make weak men.
Things like this go in cycles. You can clearly see this when studying history.
Usually people only solve the problem when things are to late and only have became a big problem. Take immigration for example, i live in Europe and you could 10 years ago already tell how things would turn out. But now that in some cities the immigrants are getting in a majority people are starting to freak out. What did they really expect when opening the borders to everyone... Didn't see that one coming (sarcasm)
Politics is not really pro-active. There is a big problem, then they might finally solve it when thing become unbearable.