Commodity pumps don’t start with news. They start with pressure. War, central bank stress, supply disruptions, and inflation fear quietly build until price is forced to revalue.
Oil moves first when order breaks. Gold follows when trust erodes. Silver lags, then overreacts. Other commodities follow the same logic, natural gas on weather stress, copper on growth expectations, food on political panic, and energy metals on policy shifts.
By the time headlines explain the move, the trade is already crowded. Commodities reward those who watch pressure, not those who wait for confirmation.
This is dead on.you can usually see it days or weeks earlier in bond yields and inventories. when gold starts moving while the dollar isn’t crashing, that’s the tell something’s wrong under the hood
Natural gas is the perfect example. It’ll do nothing for months, then one weather model shift or storage surprise sends it vertical. If you wait for CNBC, you’re just exit liquidity.
people underestimate how political food commodities are
wheat and corn dont move because of charts
they move because governments cant afford unrest
once export bans start, price has no ceiling
