I really don't know why it hasn't gone up. I know it is supposed to. I was also expecting to see a hike in my Steem posts pending payouts but they have remained the same.
Now I'm wondering, maybe this isn't a pure/real pump. Maybe there's someone doing a pump on the prices of Steem and it may crash back soon. Who knows?
I don't know all of the details of how this works, but here's what I understand is happening:
Normally, when the price of STEEM moves, the payout system will move with it, but always behind. I understand there's a 3.5 day moving average the system follows, so there's a built in lag to all of this (though sometimes it seems like it's faster than that, especially when prices go down), so it's never really immediate, but depending on how fast things are going and which direction, it can feel like it is.
However, since STEEM dropped into the $0.30 USD range and lower, the system hasn't been following it down. Instead, it's been stuck around $0.34 since, and so payouts and VP have been the same for a number of weeks.
If STEEM manages to stay up, and whatever triggered the halt is alleviated (SBD price in relation to STEEM might be involved, too), then we might see an uptick in payouts and VP within the next 2-4 days. If it doesn't, but drops back down, we might not notice anything at all.
I believe such safeguards are in place due to the potential high volatility of the market, and to try to make it reasonably fair for all concerned.
The size of the reward pool also comes into play, as it did shortly after HF 20 when all of our ability to vote went up. If the size of the reward pool shrinks, that will also affect what is happening with payouts and voting power.
So, there's a lot of moving parts, and none of it moves as quickly as the market does.
The price may be up but SP is not up. This means that STEEM is rushing over to the exchanges and being traded. So, this pump is not exactly a healthy pump. Its likely partially due to the recent update from @steemitblog, @ned's first sign of communication for a month, and probably market manipulation.
This is a scary time for STEEM hodlers, because the signs are there for a huge pump and dump. The idea for the witnesses to hardfork with Stinc's coins removed might have been the right thing, but it could also be the worst thing for Steem... Very difficult to know right now.
That is because steem blockchain while calculating the payouts takes the 3.5 average of steem price and the reference price you can check from steemnow.com which is still showing as 0.34 usd and for 10000 SP with 100% VP and 100% voting weight, the yield is still at 0.21 usd. That is why you do not see a change in the pending payout and it still remains the same.
If steem price will hold 0.38 and above for next 2/3 days then steemnow may show the average price as 0.38 in stead of 0.34 usd which is showing now. So wait for another 2/3 days see how is it changing in steemnow.com as that is a reference for the payout algorithm in steem blockchain.